The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
by Jeff Head (Idaho)
January 2004
In the 1990's the People's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented
military buildup to modernize their armed forces, increase their qualitative
functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the
geo-political dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes
being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront
the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those
geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.
The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic
rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air
forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would
otherwise have bankrupted the earlier Marxist and Maoist market economies, and
also been done while maintaining their communistic/Marxistic political hierarchy.
Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western
world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintain
their military buildup. They are also making adept application of Sun Tsu
philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering
western trade deficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are
reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue
on and achieve their military goals.
In conjunction with the capital gains, through research and development,
blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out
espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and
qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed
them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years
behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where
their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and
posing a credible threat in others.
While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and
present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting
them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.
The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air
component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily
on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval
forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, also like the
Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity
of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far
from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they
have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships
have been acquired through various strategies including purchasing them for
scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study, and purchasing
them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a
former Russian carrier, and then again bringing it to China for study. The two
carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational,
but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable
knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.
The latest carrier obtained in this fashion is the most revealing as to PLAN
intent. It is the former Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is a modern
design (newer than the initial ship of the Russian class, the Kuznetzov, which
is currently operational with the Russian fleet) and could be become a very
capable initial foray into the carrier world by the PLAN. It was towed to the
Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but
a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could be refitted
and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it
could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.
The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters
The Vayrag birthed at the Dalian Chinese naval shipyards
The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equipped it would
approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and
attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design)
to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside
of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and
with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the
China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been
purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which
could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably
modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier
and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were
producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically.
The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equipped it would
approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and
attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design)
to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside
of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and
with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credible threat in the
China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been
purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which
could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably
modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier
and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were
producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically.
Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (Chinese designate J11)
The Red Chinese J-10 fighter
But do the Chinese intend to do this?
That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing
and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to
protect and augment any carrier they develop.
The answer to that questions is an unmitigated, yes!
The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and
ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the
creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S.
Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area
air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels.
They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the
Russians.
The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late
1980's to specifically threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of
these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians
modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and
they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with
their new found wealth and technology (mostly amassed from trade with the
United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, multi-purpose
guided missile destroyers and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface
missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S.
super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels also have
a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own
protection, or close in protection of other vessels.
A former Sovremmenny class now sailing as the PLAN Hangzhou
To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese
have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own
modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous,
but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the
newer Luhu class destroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class
into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now
finally producing their new Type 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a
displacement approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and
anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other
acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese
version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being
self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities.
This is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners.
Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected
to build up to eight of them.
The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer
The second Guanghou destroyer being built
In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 54, Maanshan
class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and
anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class
frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the
Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being
built and launched in Chinese shipyards.
The new 525 Maanshan PLAN Frigate, launched, interestingly enough, on 9/11/2003.
In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in
the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very
ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense
destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS
Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier
battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.
Capitializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United
States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed
onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on
technology that has been obtained through dual technology methods, espionage and
the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are very well
funded), the Chinese are now also building a new class of area air- defense
destroyer, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyer. These vessels will
employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and
their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be
the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are
currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will
build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class
of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class
Aegis cruisers.
Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS-like destroyers nearing completion
As these ships are produced in numbers and as the Chinese continue with their
carrier development plans towards ultimately launching their own, the balance of
power in the China Sea and western Pacific is going to hang in the balance.
While the Chinese experience level with this equipment is lacking and will be
very much inferior to the decades and decades of practical experience the United
States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to
challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the
region at some point. If within range of large numbers of land-based aircraft
and missiles, and if coupled with modern, capable weapons systems like the
Sunburn or Yahkont missiles and perhaps super cavitiating torpedo technology, a
credible threat to American naval supremacy in the western Pacific could be
posed in the next few years.
It bears watching and serious consideration.
While doing so, consider this: The Chinese are currently building and
launching six or seven modern, entire classes of major combatant vessels (two of
which are new attack and strategic missile submarines)...simultaneously. This is
a monumental achievement and compares to the United States Navy which is
currently building and launching three new classes of major combatants (the
Virginia class subs, the San Antonio class LPDs, and the continuing Burk class
destroyers) with plans for two to three more U.S. classes in the future Clearly
the Chinese and the PLAN are serious about their future naval capabilities in
the China Sea and western Pacific. There can only be one naval power that they
intend to, and must, confront if confrontation over geo-political policy comes
into play...and that is the U.S. Navy. Such tremendous development, building and
launching of vessels indicate that they intend to do just that and their
intentions, capabilities and funding in this regard cannot be underestimated.
Copyright © 2004, by Jeff Head
Jeff Head (jeffhead.com) is an engineering
consultant who has many years of experience in the power, defense, and computer
industries. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and he is also the
author of a self-published and best-selling fictional series of military
techno-thrillers, called the Dragon's Fury Series of novels (dragonsfuryseries.com)
that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events.
You can read about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel
covers below:
